Golden Butterfly Portfolio
A balanced 5-way split across stocks, small-cap, long & short bonds, and gold - estimated to 1976.
US Total Market Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to VTI's 2001 inception using the US total-market return (Ken French Data Library), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real VTI fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before VTI's 2001 inception, from the US total-market return (Ken French Data Library).
US Small-Cap Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to IWM's 2000 inception using US small-cap returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real IWM fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before IWM's 2000 inception, from US small-cap returns (Ken French).
Long-Term Treasury Backfill (20+yr, estimated to 1953)1953-05-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1953 to TLT's 2002 inception using the 20-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real TLT fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before TLT's 2002 inception, from the 20-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
Short-Term Treasury Backfill (1-3yr, estimated to 1976)1976-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1976 to SHY's 2002 inception using the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SHY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SHY's 2002 inception, from the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
Gold Backfill (estimated to 1968)1968-01-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1968 to GLD's 2004 inception using the gold spot price (World Bank); gold was a fixed official price before the 1968 free market, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real GLD fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before GLD's 2004 inception, from the gold spot price (World Bank); gold was a fixed official price before the 1968 free market.
Total 100%
Data window Golden Butterfly Portfolio: 1976-07-31 → 2026-06-30 · start: SHYX
Dashed = estimated before the fund existed (reconstructed from its tracked index): GOLDX from 1968-01-31 · SHYX from 1976-07-31 · SMALLX from 1926-07-31 · UST20X from 1953-05-31 · USTOTX from 1926-07-31
Portfolio growth
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
CAGR9.24%
Max Drawdown-18.93%
Volatility8.55%
Sharpe0.60
Final balance$828,708
Total return8187.08%
Drawdown
Annual returns
More statistics
| Golden Butterfly Portfolio | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | 8187.08% |
| Sortino | 0.82 |
| Best Year | 35.36% |
| Worst Year | -15.60% |
| Positive Months | 65.83% |
| Annualized Return (mean) | 9.23% |