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Backtest any portfolio free - stocks, ETFs, crypto & gold, history back to 1871.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator - How Long Will Your Money Last?

Enter your portfolio, balance, and annual spending. We replay your retirement through every historical start date - over 1,500 cohorts back to 1871 for long-history portfolios - and report your success rate, safe withdrawal rate, and the exact years that would have broken the plan. Withdrawals rise with real historical CPI inflation, and a Monte Carlo cross-check runs alongside. Free, no paywall, no sign-up.

Portfolio
S&P 500 Backfill (estimated to 1871)1871-02-28 → 2026-07-31Estimated from 1871 to SPY's 1993 inception using the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SPY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SPY's 1993 inception, from the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller).
US Total Bond Backfill (Treasury proxy, estimated to 1953)1953-05-31 → 2026-07-31Estimated from 1953 to BND's 2007 inception using the 5-year Treasury yield (FRED) - a Treasury proxy that excludes credit spread, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real BND fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before BND's 2007 inception, from the 5-year Treasury yield (FRED) - a Treasury proxy that excludes credit spread.
Total 100%

"Keep pace with inflation" is the standard assumption (the 4% rule / Trinity study convention): the dollar withdrawal rises with each month's actual historical CPI. Tip: the default portfolio uses deep-history index versions (SP500X, AGGX) so retirements are tested back to the 1950s and beyond - regular ETFs like SPY only carry their own live history.

Open these inBacktestFrontierMonte CarloCorrelationsDiversifyReport
97.1%
success rate - your money lasted the full 30 years in 505 of 520 historical retirements (1953 to 2026). Monte Carlo cross-check: 98%.

Portfolio balance through retirement (today's dollars)

Shaded bands: 5-95th, 10-90th, 25-75th percentiles across all historical retirements · line = median · balances inflation-adjusted to retirement-date dollars.
Withdrawal rates (inflation-adjusted, 30 years)
Your withdrawal rate4.00%
Never-failed rate (100%)3.89%
95%-safe rate4.05%
Safe annual spend @95%$40,500
Ending balance after 30 years (today's dollars)
Median$1,774,716
10th percentile$181,726
90th percentile$3,612,885
Worst cohortdepletedretired 1965-02

The retirements that failed

15 of 520 historical retirements ran out of money before year 30 - all starting in 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969. This is sequence of returns risk: a bad market early plus inflation-adjusted withdrawals.

1965-1228.1y1966-0228.1y1965-1128.3y1965-0628.7y1966-0128.7y1966-0328.8y1965-1028.9y1965-0529.3y1968-1229.3y1965-0329.5y1965-0429.7y1965-0229.8y+3 more

Method: your portfolio's monthly returns (rebalanced monthly, dividends reinvested) are replayed from every possible start month; withdrawals are taken monthly and raised with actual CPI inflation. Balances shown are deflated to retirement-date purchasing power. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See the methodology.

Retirement withdrawal questions, answered

How long will my money last in retirement?

It depends on your withdrawal rate and on the sequence of market returns you happen to retire into. This calculator answers it empirically: it replays your exact portfolio and spending through every historical retirement start date the data allows (over 1,500 cohorts since 1871 for long-history portfolios) and reports how often the money lasted the full horizon, plus the worst cases by name.

What is a safe withdrawal rate?

A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the percentage of your starting balance you can withdraw each year, raised with inflation, with a high probability of never running out. This tool computes two versions for your actual portfolio: the rate that survived 100% of history, and the rate that survived 95% of historical retirements.

Is the 4% rule still safe?

The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study: a 50-75% stock portfolio survived 30-year retirements at a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate in roughly 95%+ of US history. That held in our data too - a classic 60/40 portfolio succeeds in about 97% of all 30-year retirements since 1953, with the failures concentrated in the 1965-1966 cohorts. Whether 4% is safe for you depends on your portfolio, horizon, and flexibility - test it directly above.

What is sequence of returns risk?

Two retirees can earn the same average return and end up with wildly different outcomes if the order of returns differs. Bad years early in retirement force you to sell more shares at low prices to fund withdrawals, permanently depleting the portfolio - that is sequence of returns risk. It is why this calculator tests every start date rather than assuming an average, and why someone who retired in 1966 ran out of money while a 1975 retiree with the same portfolio finished rich.

How is this different from a Monte Carlo retirement calculator?

Monte Carlo simulation draws random returns from a statistical distribution; historical simulation replays what markets actually did, preserving real crashes, recoveries, and inflation spikes in their true order. Each has blind spots, so this tool shows both: the historical success rate across every real retirement cohort, and a Monte Carlo cross-check based on your portfolio's own return distribution.

Does this retirement calculator include Social Security?

Yes - enter your expected Social Security benefit (or pension) as annual income and the retirement year it starts. It is treated as inflation-adjusted, like a real COLA benefit: it offsets your withdrawals from that point on, and any surplus is reinvested. Delaying the start year shows exactly how much early-retirement risk that gap creates.

Can I use this as a 401k withdrawal calculator?

Yes. Enter your 401k or IRA balance, the funds it holds (or close equivalents), and your planned annual withdrawal. The simulation is account-agnostic - it models the investments and withdrawals. Note it does not model taxes or required minimum distributions, so use your gross withdrawal need.

Still accumulating? Find your FIRE number with the FIRE & Coast FIRE calculator, stress-test allocations in the portfolio backtester, or start from a proven lazy portfolio.