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William Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio

Bernstein's four equal quarters - US large, US small, international, and bonds.

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S&P 500 Backfill (estimated to 1871)1871-02-28 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1871 to SPY's 1993 inception using the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SPY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SPY's 1993 inception, from the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller).
US Small-Cap Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to IWM's 2000 inception using US small-cap returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real IWM fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before IWM's 2000 inception, from US small-cap returns (Ken French).
Developed ex-US Backfill (estimated to 1990)1990-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1990 to EFA's 2005 inception using developed ex-US market returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real EFA fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before EFA's 2005 inception, from developed ex-US market returns (Ken French).
US Total Bond Backfill (Treasury proxy, estimated to 1953)1953-05-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1953 to BND's 2007 inception using the 5-year Treasury yield (FRED) - a Treasury proxy that excludes credit spread, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real BND fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before BND's 2007 inception, from the 5-year Treasury yield (FRED) - a Treasury proxy that excludes credit spread.
Total 100%
Data window William Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio: 1990-07-31 → 2026-06-30 · start: INTLX
Dashed = estimated before the fund existed (reconstructed from its tracked index): AGGX from 1953-05-31 · INTLX from 1990-07-31 · SMALLX from 1926-07-31 · SP500X from 1871-02-28

Portfolio growth

William Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio
CAGR7.97%
Max Drawdown-40.69%
Volatility11.71%
Sharpe0.49
Final balance$158,186
Total return1481.86%

Drawdown

Annual returns

William Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio
Total Return1481.86%
Sortino0.65
Best Year29.34%
Worst Year-27.38%
Positive Months65.51%
Annualized Return (mean)8.39%

Correlation

AGGXINTLXSMALLXSP500X
AGGX1.000.200.070.16
INTLX0.201.000.670.76
SMALLX0.070.671.000.78
SP500X0.160.760.781.00