Pinwheel Portfolio
Four balanced 'blades' of stocks, bonds, real assets, and cash spinning around a gold-and-REIT core.
S&P 500 Backfill (estimated to 1871)1871-02-28 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1871 to SPY's 1993 inception using the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SPY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SPY's 1993 inception, from the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller).
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF2004-02-29 → 2026-06-30click to change
%
Developed ex-US Backfill (estimated to 1990)1990-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1990 to EFA's 2005 inception using developed ex-US market returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real EFA fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before EFA's 2005 inception, from developed ex-US market returns (Ken French).
Emerging Markets Backfill (estimated to 1989)1989-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1989 to EEM's 2003 inception using emerging-market returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real EEM fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before EEM's 2003 inception, from emerging-market returns (Ken French).
Intermediate Treasury Backfill (7-10yr, estimated to 1953)1953-05-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1953 to IEF's 2002 inception using the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real IEF fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before IEF's 2002 inception, from the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
Short-Term Treasury Backfill (1-3yr, estimated to 1976)1976-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1976 to SHY's 2002 inception using the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SHY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SHY's 2002 inception, from the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
US Real Estate Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to VNQ's 2004 inception using US real-estate industry returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real VNQ fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before VNQ's 2004 inception, from US real-estate industry returns (Ken French).
Gold Backfill (estimated to 1968)1968-01-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1968 to GLD's 2004 inception using the gold spot price (World Bank); gold was a fixed official price before the 1968 free market, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real GLD fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before GLD's 2004 inception, from the gold spot price (World Bank); gold was a fixed official price before the 1968 free market.
Total 100%
Data window Pinwheel Portfolio: 2004-02-29 → 2026-06-30 · start: VBR
Dashed = estimated before the fund existed (reconstructed from its tracked index): EMKTX from 1989-07-31 · GOLDX from 1968-01-31 · IEFX from 1953-05-31 · INTLX from 1990-07-31 · REITX from 1926-07-31 · SHYX from 1976-07-31 · SP500X from 1871-02-28
Portfolio growth
Pinwheel Portfolio
CAGR8.12%
Max Drawdown-36.25%Feb 2009
Volatility11.04%
Sharpe0.61
Final balance$57,598
Total return475.98%
Drawdown
Annual returns
More statistics
| Pinwheel Portfolio | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | 475.98% |
| Sortino | 0.78 |
| Best Year | 27.16% |
| Worst Year | -22.29% |
| Positive Months | 65.06% |
| Annualized Return (mean) | 8.45% |
Correlation
| EMKTX | GOLDX | IEFX | INTLX | REITX | SHYX | SP500X | VBR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKTX | 1.00 | 0.33 | -0.02 | 0.86 | 0.61 | -0.01 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| GOLDX | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| IEFX | -0.02 | 0.31 | 1.00 | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.78 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| INTLX | 0.86 | 0.22 | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.70 | -0.01 | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| REITX | 0.61 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| SHYX | -0.01 | 0.30 | 0.78 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| SP500X | 0.74 | 0.08 | -0.07 | 0.85 | 0.73 | -0.10 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| VBR | 0.70 | 0.05 | -0.13 | 0.80 | 0.79 | -0.15 | 0.89 | 1.00 |