Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold
Merriman's globally diversified 60/40 with deep value and small-cap tilts across ten equity classes.
S&P 500 Backfill (estimated to 1871)1871-02-28 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1871 to SPY's 1993 inception using the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SPY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before SPY's 1993 inception, from the S&P 500 total-return index (Robert Shiller).
Vanguard Value ETF2004-02-29 → 2026-06-30click to change
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US Small-Cap Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to IWM's 2000 inception using US small-cap returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real IWM fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before IWM's 2000 inception, from US small-cap returns (Ken French).
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF2004-02-29 → 2026-06-30click to change
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US Real Estate Backfill (estimated to 1926)1926-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1926 to VNQ's 2004 inception using US real-estate industry returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real VNQ fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before VNQ's 2004 inception, from US real-estate industry returns (Ken French).
Developed ex-US Backfill (estimated to 1990)1990-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1990 to EFA's 2005 inception using developed ex-US market returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real EFA fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before EFA's 2005 inception, from developed ex-US market returns (Ken French).
Emerging Markets Backfill (estimated to 1989)1989-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1989 to EEM's 2003 inception using emerging-market returns (Ken French), minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real EEM fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before EEM's 2003 inception, from emerging-market returns (Ken French).
Intermediate Treasury Backfill (7-10yr, estimated to 1953)1953-05-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1953 to IEF's 2002 inception using the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real IEF fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
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backfill estimated before IEF's 2002 inception, from the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
Short-Term Treasury Backfill (1-3yr, estimated to 1976)1976-07-31 → 2026-06-30Estimated from 1976 to SHY's 2002 inception using the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond, minus the fund's expense ratio, then chain-linked to the real SHY fund. The dashed part of the chart is estimated - an index proxy, not the fund's real record.
%
backfill estimated before SHY's 2002 inception, from the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED), modeled as a constant-maturity bond.
iShares TIPS Bond ETF2004-01-31 → 2026-06-30click to change
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Total 100%
Data window Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold: 2004-02-29 → 2026-06-30 · start: VTV
Dashed = estimated before the fund existed (reconstructed from its tracked index): EMKTX from 1989-07-31 · IEFX from 1953-05-31 · INTLX from 1990-07-31 · REITX from 1926-07-31 · SHYX from 1976-07-31 · SMALLX from 1926-07-31 · SP500X from 1871-02-28
Portfolio growth
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold
CAGR6.74%
Max Drawdown-33.18%Feb 2009
Volatility9.76%
Sharpe0.55
Final balance$43,177
Total return331.77%
Drawdown
Annual returns
More statistics
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | 331.77% |
| Sortino | 0.70 |
| Best Year | 21.14% |
| Worst Year | -19.86% |
| Positive Months | 65.43% |
| Annualized Return (mean) | 7.02% |
Correlation
| EMKTX | IEFX | INTLX | REITX | SHYX | SMALLX | SP500X | TIP | VBR | VTV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKTX | 1.00 | -0.02 | 0.86 | 0.61 | -0.01 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| IEFX | -0.02 | 1.00 | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.78 | -0.13 | -0.07 | 0.71 | -0.13 | -0.12 |
| INTLX | 0.86 | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.70 | -0.01 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.86 |
| REITX | 0.61 | 0.14 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| SHYX | -0.01 | 0.78 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.15 | -0.10 | 0.53 | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| SMALLX | 0.70 | -0.13 | 0.77 | 0.73 | -0.15 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.23 | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| SP500X | 0.74 | -0.07 | 0.85 | 0.73 | -0.10 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| TIP | 0.35 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| VBR | 0.70 | -0.13 | 0.80 | 0.79 | -0.15 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| VTV | 0.72 | -0.12 | 0.86 | 0.75 | -0.13 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 0.25 | 0.93 | 1.00 |